Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 13 2021 | 9921 | 43619 | 315 | 89 | 546 | 739 |
| January 14 2021 | 9981 | 43753 | 315 | 90 | 554 | 722 |
| January 15 2021 | 10022 | 43871 | 318 | 91 | 558 | 727 |
| January 16 2021 | 10059 | 43951 | 321 | 92 | 511 | 764 |
| January 17 2021 | 10106 | 44079 | 321 | 92 | 476 | 731 |
| January 18 2021 | 10124 | 44151 | 321 | 92 | 442 | 697 |
| January 19 2021 | 10133 | 44234 | 322 | 92 | 413 | 669 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.1 | 5.8% | 24 | 0.21% | 45 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 4.7 | 13.1% | 54 | 0.4% | 87 | 0.64% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 8.3 | 21.8% | 90 | 0.43% | 157 | 0.75% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 5.9 | 14.3% | 59 | 0.43% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 5.3 | 12.3% | 51 | 0.49% | 80 | 0.76% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 4.9 | 14.5% | 60 | 0.48% | 92 | 0.73% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 5.0 | 11.4% | 47 | 0.41% | 75 | 0.65% |
| 70+ | 1 | 3.4 | 6.8% | 28 | 0.27% | 45 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 9 | 39.6 | 100% | 413 | 0.39% | 669 | 0.64% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 13 2021 | 6355 | 25787 | 187 | 72 | 383 | 516 |
| January 14 2021 | 6429 | 25852 | 190 | 72 | 425 | 527 |
| January 15 2021 | 6454 | 25934 | 192 | 72 | 439 | 531 |
| January 16 2021 | 6484 | 26007 | 193 | 72 | 417 | 561 |
| January 17 2021 | 6513 | 26068 | 193 | 72 | 420 | 541 |
| January 18 2021 | 6534 | 26121 | 196 | 72 | 358 | 530 |
| January 19 2021 | 6543 | 26168 | 196 | 72 | 316 | 528 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.3 | 7.6% | 24 | 0.31% | 37 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 2.4 | 8.2% | 26 | 0.31% | 48 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.1 | 11.1% | 35 | 0.49% | 78 | 1.1% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 6.1 | 17.7% | 56 | 0.67% | 89 | 1.06% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 4.0 | 15.8% | 50 | 0.64% | 77 | 0.99% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 6.0 | 16.5% | 52 | 0.54% | 79 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 3.3 | 10.4% | 33 | 0.39% | 62 | 0.74% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.3 | 12.7% | 40 | 0.56% | 58 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 9 | 28.6 | 100% | 316 | 0.49% | 528 | 0.82% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 13 2021 | 4772 | 17246 | 200 | 61 | 238 | 337 |
| January 14 2021 | 4805 | 17313 | 201 | 61 | 256 | 333 |
| January 15 2021 | 4840 | 17360 | 204 | 63 | 273 | 333 |
| January 16 2021 | 4861 | 17391 | 207 | 64 | 276 | 348 |
| January 17 2021 | 4889 | 17435 | 208 | 64 | 260 | 355 |
| January 18 2021 | 4911 | 17464 | 208 | 64 | 232 | 362 |
| January 19 2021 | 4913 | 17478 | 209 | 65 | 208 | 346 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.8% | 10 | 0.18% | 17 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 4.0 | 15.9% | 33 | 0.61% | 48 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.1 | 10.6% | 22 | 0.49% | 42 | 0.93% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 2.9 | 12% | 25 | 0.46% | 43 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 2.9 | 13% | 27 | 0.54% | 53 | 1.06% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.6 | 20.2% | 42 | 0.62% | 58 | 0.85% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.3 | 10.6% | 22 | 0.35% | 42 | 0.66% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.4 | 13% | 27 | 0.43% | 43 | 0.68% |
| All ages | 2 | 21.9 | 100% | 208 | 0.46% | 346 | 0.76% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 13 2021 | 10902 | 46893 | 272 | 64 | 673 | 908 |
| January 14 2021 | 10927 | 47025 | 274 | 64 | 620 | 802 |
| January 15 2021 | 10960 | 47154 | 280 | 65 | 574 | 802 |
| January 16 2021 | 11005 | 47248 | 283 | 67 | 523 | 845 |
| January 17 2021 | 11025 | 47332 | 284 | 67 | 480 | 796 |
| January 18 2021 | 11078 | 47454 | 284 | 67 | 485 | 771 |
| January 19 2021 | 11102 | 47568 | 287 | 67 | 411 | 716 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.6 | 6.8% | 28 | 0.24% | 43 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.9 | 10.5% | 43 | 0.26% | 75 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 6.7 | 18% | 74 | 0.35% | 140 | 0.66% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 7.4 | 18.5% | 76 | 0.56% | 136 | 1% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 6.0 | 15.1% | 62 | 0.46% | 98 | 0.72% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.4 | 10.9% | 45 | 0.32% | 78 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.3 | 12.2% | 50 | 0.35% | 78 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.4 | 8% | 33 | 0.25% | 68 | 0.52% |
| All ages | 24 | 40.7 | 100% | 411 | 0.35% | 716 | 0.61% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 13 2021 | 35743 | 299432 | 1068 | 214 | 1936 | 2787 |
| January 14 2021 | 35987 | 300080 | 1072 | 218 | 1974 | 2674 |
| January 15 2021 | 36126 | 300769 | 1076 | 218 | 1984 | 2587 |
| January 16 2021 | 36297 | 301630 | 1082 | 218 | 1960 | 2758 |
| January 17 2021 | 36433 | 302100 | 1087 | 218 | 1710 | 2626 |
| January 18 2021 | 36522 | 302581 | 1091 | 218 | 1514 | 2509 |
| January 19 2021 | 36563 | 303049 | 1099 | 218 | 1374 | 2421 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 7.3 | 5.5% | 76 | 0.13% | 129 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 17.1 | 13.8% | 189 | 0.27% | 313 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 33.4 | 23.7% | 326 | 0.31% | 638 | 0.61% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 23.4 | 16.9% | 232 | 0.3% | 418 | 0.55% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 17.7 | 13.3% | 183 | 0.28% | 348 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 16.0 | 13% | 178 | 0.27% | 285 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 11.3 | 8.6% | 118 | 0.22% | 176 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 3 | 6.6 | 5.2% | 72 | 0.15% | 114 | 0.23% |
| All ages | 41 | 132.9 | 100% | 1374 | 0.25% | 2421 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 13 2021 | 513270 | 2414873 | 22705 | 5248 | 26739 | 35978 |
| January 14 2021 | 515982 | 2421860 | 22804 | 5290 | 28044 | 34880 |
| January 15 2021 | 518251 | 2427631 | 22923 | 5322 | 26910 | 35244 |
| January 16 2021 | 520188 | 2432726 | 23026 | 5450 | 25441 | 36103 |
| January 17 2021 | 521794 | 2437794 | 23076 | 5451 | 23256 | 35263 |
| January 18 2021 | 522877 | 2441843 | 23130 | 5470 | 20865 | 34939 |
| January 19 2021 | 524402 | 2445399 | 23244 | 5512 | 19344 | 33061 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 96 | 117.7 | 6% | 1154 | 0.18% | 1843 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 205 | 231.6 | 12% | 2324 | 0.31% | 4018 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 237 | 315.0 | 17.2% | 3332 | 0.44% | 5798 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 232 | 292.1 | 15.1% | 2930 | 0.39% | 5098 | 0.67% |
| 40-49 | 200 | 255.9 | 13.6% | 2631 | 0.38% | 4611 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 241 | 282.4 | 14.9% | 2890 | 0.35% | 4878 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 164 | 217.1 | 11.5% | 2217 | 0.29% | 3656 | 0.48% |
| 70+ | 150 | 183.3 | 9.7% | 1868 | 0.29% | 3159 | 0.49% |
| All ages | 1525 | 1895.1 | 100% | 19344 | 0.33% | 33061 | 0.57% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.9 | 64 | 75 | 39.6 | 55.3 | 26.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81.7 | 28.6 | 36.1 | 29.9% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76.5 | 21.9 | 24.6 | 35.4% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.6 | 45.3 | 65.8 | 40.7 | 62.1 | 25.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.3 | 44 | 61.4 | 132.9 | 209.9 | 20.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.8 | 53.1 | 76.6 | 1895.1 | 2715 | 27% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.6 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4755"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges